I’ve been thinking a lot about behavioral modeling, particularly as it relates to validation of non concurrent prediction. In psychological reorganization (beh change), within-person variability is likely to increase, particularly when constraints are loosening (eg social or environment expectations and personal rules/strategies) and alternative (competing?) response strategies are active, dynamic and conditional indicators emerges. As systems change, other change occurs and thus change produces change and variability is a probable, bayes indicator of risk (eg HRV).
Change is increasingly likely when paired with a goal directed response strategies with more task demand, greater incentives, and cognitive factors (load, insight, etc) offering a strategically constrained process of change. These features permit interpretation of personality and validity processes as dynamic systems rather than fixed trait expressions. work on personality functioning and variability highlight one element of this pattern to me, though focused on trait theory tied to PD which, while a core element, likely forgos other transdiagnostic constructs and processes. I suspect that repeated measure approaches, for this reason, offer better predictive modeling, following basic QFT model patterns and building on more stable forces (eg trait) as predictive behavior modeling. It reminds me of an implication of Chris Hopwoods work (see below link) and AMPD more broadly
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00223891.2024.2345880
All problems are measurement problems. svt seem to function in a standard range of effects, differentiated by method of measurement (eg mean difference is .7 to 1.3, sens/spec via Larabee limit, etc). These effects are likely part of the stable field functional analysis. Im increasingly confident in the vitality of the SD and standard effect ranges in understanding individual prediction, rather than group focused models which dominate Psychology and assessment moreover.
Disruption proceeds change.
Dr. Paul Ingram, Ph.D 